Throughout history, there have always been examples of people (soothsayers, etc.) in the population that made claims to know or be able to predict the future. In historic times, their degree of accuracy probably depended more on the gullibility of their audience, and a hefty dose of luck, combined with excellent creativity and knowledge of the times.
In this modern age, people that predict future events tend to work more in the area of trend prediction based on the analysis of piles of data. They use models and forecasts and all sorts of math-y tools to project what might happen. They look at what has been happening, incorporate various events and scenarios into the equation, and then chart out what might happen. They are able to do this with fairly decent accuracy, all things being considered.
To me, the process of looking at trends one part looking at the direction and angle of the curve, with the second part keeping an eye on current and recent past events. I think of this split view approach as a sort of “truthing”, since most trends have ties to the present, and don’t just appear out of nowhere. In my opinion, a trend that is sharply separated from reality is likely an outlier, and won’t last long.
I’m not one that would be considered trendy by any stretch. The closest I have ever come to being on the leading edge of the fashion trends was being only a year or two behind the curve with jean styles and boat shoes in the late 80s and early 90s. However, I do recognize that there is value in considering trends and predictions, since it can provide you with an opportunity to add more customers or clients or provide products and services to meet the theoretical increase in demand for popular or trendy items.
Since the end of the year, or the beginning of a new year are excellent times to consider trends, and make plans for the future, I figured that I’d take a look at a few different trend reports that have popped up in recent months, with the intent to help highlight some of the ones that I think might have potential for my clients and industry.
Some Example Reports (in case you want to read them in their entirety)
Canada Food Prices Report 2021 – Dalhousie University – Agri-Food Analytics Lab
2021 Garden Trends Report: The Great Reset – Garden Media’s annual report
2021 Global Marketing Trends: Find your focus – Deloitte
2021 Social, Influencer Marketing + Analytics Trends Report – Ketchum
Garden Trends 2021
A few weeks ago, I sat in on a presentation from Garden Media group, where they presented their 2021 trends. It gave me an appreciation for our recent history (a.k.a. 2020), as many of the trends predicted for 2021 have deep ties to 2020 and the global pandemic. Interestingly enough, the pandemic, along with all of the changes that it brought, wasn’t necessarily on anyone’s radar, but 2020 is the year that keeps on giving.
Just for interest, I went back to the 2020 report, just to see what they’d predicted. Without going into any sort of detail, lots of the focus was on the environmental side of horticulture. This included the greening of cities, the rise of green economy, green industry jobs, and the increasing interest in sustainability in production and soils. The trend for houseplants is discussed, as well as the increase in desire for making connections outside your home through plants. This includes a nod to a need for education, services, etc. There was a big section on having frog-friendly yards and spaces, as well as highlighting the importance of mushrooms in food and the planet.
Jump forward to the 2021 report, and you will see some of the common threads of 2020 interwoven into the 6 big trends of 2021. I would say that the biggest take home message is that the global pandemic has caused a fundamental shift in lots of the thinking and was the biggest influencer of the future trends.
The first trend area was called “Improv Era” with reference to the shift in the supply chain and the need for businesses to be nimble and open to quick changes. Since we have already survived the “quick change act” that was spring 2020, with a massive and sudden shift to curb-side pickup and delivery and to online stores and online shopping (well, online EVERYTHING), 2021 should be a continued (if more orderly) movement in this direction. Speed and distancing are the watchwords.
According to the report, you should go with quality over quantity, and find a way to provide consumers with the experiences that they crave, while keeping it distanced and outdoors. You are going to have to reach people remotely and find a way to connect with them in new ways. The good news is that people will be paying attention and will be desperate for interactions. As a business, you have to be ready to shift quickly, as things change.
The second trend they outline is called “Broadacre Cities”. On the surface, this one could be a bit of a stretch to wrap your brain around (at least, it is for me), but at the core, this is simply a shift outside of the big urban centre and the urban office space. The shift towards “work-from-home” is speeding this up, which means that we might see more people outside of the urban cores.
Less commuting means more free time. There is more interest in (and time spent) outdoor spaces, with people having more time for this. There is also a continuing trend towards bringing plants into the indoor space (yup, houseplants) with the move to more home offices.
The third trend is called “Backyard Aficionado”, with reference to connecting with the boom in new horticultural customers (a.k.a. gardeners). It is estimated that, with the changes that have occurred due to the pandemic and associated isolation and quarantines, people are spending a lot more time outside each day. They estimate that there could be 16-24 million new gardeners, many of whom are younger (under 35). This is driving a need to retain these new gardeners, through education, training, and providing tools, products, and services that make the whole “gardening thing” easier.
There is a heightened interest in food gardening and home cooking, as well as in edible plants (berries, especially, not just vegetables). One thing to note is that while interest in growing their own food has increased, peoples’ growing areas and skills have NOT increased, so there is a need to provide assistance and products that work within a smaller space, and that fit any skill level.
There has been a boom in garden influencers on social media, as the thirst for assistance and information swells. There is an intense need for mental and physical health supports in isolation, which horticulture can supply. Both of these are an opportunity for horticulture industry professionals to provide some support services to their clients. You are going to have to be creative in managing this, since it can and will be time consuming.
There is also less interest in lawns, and more interest in plant variety, with a view to encouraging pollinators and using native plants.
The fourth trend is “Impatient Gratification”, with reference to the new gardener (both their age and inexperience). People want small (actually, tiny) plants, and they want quick results, whether it be edible plants, or houseplants, or whatever.
The fifth trend is “Design Abundance”, which is all about creating natural landscapes that are living and varied, not just mulched and grassed. It is about bringing nature into our spaces, not assuming it is somewhere else. Planting (and caring for) big trees is also trending, as their benefits continues to be recognized more each year.
The final trend is all about reducing lights at night (“Turn off the Lights”), to protect insect populations and conserve energy.
Canada Food Price Report 2021
This study predicts an average increase in food prices by 3-5 percent, (compared to a predicted increase of 2-4% in 2020), with costs for fruits and vegetables being 4.5-6.5%. Prices are impacted by global supply changes (due to the pandemic), as well as other worldwide challenges. The effects of climate change, growth in e-commerce and online services, national policy shifts, and other factors will affect price shifts.
Global Marketing Trends 2021
People are demanding a greater human connection and engagement with the companies that they do business with. If you can show to your customers that you care about them and the issues that matter to them, you stand a good chance at keeping them. Focus on communicating your “Why”, such as why you do what you do.
With the shift to online and virtual interactions, it is more important than ever to find ways to connect and be relevant to your customers. It is important to provide ways for the customer to interact and develop a relationship and connection with you and your business. Look to offer things that build on the human connection. Build on the shared values that you have. Do that things that you provide or offer match with the things that your customer is expecting from you? Are your customers active participants in what you do or how you are shifting and changing?
Other things that might be trendy
2021 has been identified by the United Nations at the International Year of Fruits and Vegetables, which might prove to be an opportunity for horticultural crop producers to connect and raise their profile.
What does it all mean?
Whatever the trend, horticulture is primed to be an integral part of the lives of the 2021 human. If you were able to successfully adapt to the changes of 2020, you should be well-positioned to move forward in 2021.